What you are predicting
For each market, the question is the simplest possible one:Will the price of be above or below the strike price when the round ends?That’s it. No leverage selection, no margin model, no liquidation price, no “TWAP vs. mark vs. index” footgun. One asset, one strike, one timestamp, one answer.
Why “above or below” instead of order books
Order books leak information. Every resting order is a signal a more sophisticated actor can trade against. Above-or-below markets eliminate that surface entirely — there is nothing for a front-runner to front-run, because there is no order to see and no intent to scrape.How strike prices are chosen
Strike prices are drawn from a fresh, signed oracle reading at the moment the round opens. They are not set by Prediction Arena, not negotiated, not auctioned, and not chosen to favor either side. Every player in a given round sees the same strike at the same instant.Why pot-style payouts
Winners split the entire losing pot pro-rata to their stake. This means:- No counterparty risk. Your winnings come from other players’ stakes that are already locked in the contract — not from a market maker’s promise to pay.
- No solvency risk. The contract can never owe more than it holds.
- No bad debt. A market that runs forever cannot accumulate the kind of insurance-fund deficits that have collapsed centralized perp venues.